The Grenfell Inquiry is due to issue its final report on 4 September 2024. Here are my predictions for what it will say about the toxicity of the fire.
It was not a toxic fire.
The report will say that the soil surrounding the fire was tested by AECOM Ltd [appointed to the job without the required government tender exercise] and they found it was no more toxic than any typical London soil.
[The fact that the Guardian reported Professor Anna Stec in 2018 thus:
In briefings to senior health agency staff, Stec said she had found “huge concentrations” of potential carcinogens in the dust and soil around the tower in west London, and in burned debris that had fallen from the tower.
High levels of hydrogen cyanide were also present in the soil she analysed.
will not be mentioned.]
The Furniture Regulations' part in the fire will not be mentioned.
The fact that the Furniture Regulations had been proved not to work means the fire was far more toxic than it otherwise would have been. Despite the Inquiry having been informed of this, Professor Alan Penn insisted (to me and several others) that the regulations and flame retardants have been "highly successful". Challenged to prove this, he went silent; therefore the Inquiry report will simply fail to mention the regs.
Internal debris will not be looked at in terms of fire toxicants.
While internal debris has been sifted for human remains, the only report on the make-up of toxicants and their sources in debris was put together by Professor Anna Stec in 2022. I'll look at this in detail later but essentially it fails to provide amounts for toxicants from cladding and Stec states that she did not look for furniture toxicants at all. Clearly the Final Report should be more detailed but my guess is it will gloss over this subject. During the course of the Inquiry it has barely been mentioned, only that we were told (again by Alan Penn specifically) that the coroner will look at it in his report. But the coroner has said he will not look at anything not included in the Inquiry's report.
The fire did not make people ill.
Yvonne Doyle of Public Health England, when informed by hundreds of Grenfell survivors at a public event, that most of them were ill, many still coughing up blood, told them that it was not the fire that had made them ill, but pre-existing medical conditions "exacerbated by the stress of the fire". Which somewhat contradicts the government making survivors sign a waiver when receiving (paltry) compensation payments in 2023 to promise that they would not make any claims for health damages. Thus, the final report will hugely play down this factor and might even state as "evidence" that there have been no claims from survivors.
All those working for the Inquiry were independent.
The Inquiry was informed of Sir Ken Knight's many conflicts of interest over the Grenfell fire, not least that he made strenuous efforts to prevent the Furniture Regulations being made safe, and did not declare so to the Inquiry. The Inquiry was also informed that Professor David Purser, appointed to write the report on the toxicity of the fire, had long-standing associations with the flame retardant industry (and flame retardants would have contributed hugely to the fire) but did not see any reason to act. None of which will be mentioned.
Flame retardants will barely be mentioned.
David Purser's report places huge weighting on the toxicity of the fire having stemmed from cladding and windowsills (despite the fact that cladding insulation does not appear to have contained flame retardants and most of its fumes would have remained outside the tower), and only mentions furniture in passing. The report will mirror this, i.e. ensuring it is seen to acknowledge that burning furniture played a part in the toxic fire but not the fact that the contribution of hundreds of sofas and mattresses and cushions, stuffed with toxic flame retardants, would clearly massively outweigh the contribution from cladding and windowsills.
The fact that all home fires are highly toxic and any future tower block fires will be just as deadly as Grenfell will not be mentioned.
UK furniture continues to be highly toxic and flammable, and looks to remain so for many years to come, judging by the current delaying tactics of the OPSS. Hence, future tower block fires will be as toxic as Grenfell and any dwelling fires will remain highly toxic too. The fact that this means every citizen in the country, and firefighters, remain at huge risk of fire poisoning will not be tackled by the report, and no warnings to the public will be given.
It was not a toxic fire.
The report will say that the soil surrounding the fire was tested by AECOM Ltd [appointed to the job without the required government tender exercise] and they found it was no more toxic than any typical London soil.
[The fact that the Guardian reported Professor Anna Stec in 2018 thus:
In briefings to senior health agency staff, Stec said she had found “huge concentrations” of potential carcinogens in the dust and soil around the tower in west London, and in burned debris that had fallen from the tower.
High levels of hydrogen cyanide were also present in the soil she analysed.
will not be mentioned.]
The Furniture Regulations' part in the fire will not be mentioned.
The fact that the Furniture Regulations had been proved not to work means the fire was far more toxic than it otherwise would have been. Despite the Inquiry having been informed of this, Professor Alan Penn insisted (to me and several others) that the regulations and flame retardants have been "highly successful". Challenged to prove this, he went silent; therefore the Inquiry report will simply fail to mention the regs.
Internal debris will not be looked at in terms of fire toxicants.
While internal debris has been sifted for human remains, the only report on the make-up of toxicants and their sources in debris was put together by Professor Anna Stec in 2022. I'll look at this in detail later but essentially it fails to provide amounts for toxicants from cladding and Stec states that she did not look for furniture toxicants at all. Clearly the Final Report should be more detailed but my guess is it will gloss over this subject. During the course of the Inquiry it has barely been mentioned, only that we were told (again by Alan Penn specifically) that the coroner will look at it in his report. But the coroner has said he will not look at anything not included in the Inquiry's report.
The fire did not make people ill.
Yvonne Doyle of Public Health England, when informed by hundreds of Grenfell survivors at a public event, that most of them were ill, many still coughing up blood, told them that it was not the fire that had made them ill, but pre-existing medical conditions "exacerbated by the stress of the fire". Which somewhat contradicts the government making survivors sign a waiver when receiving (paltry) compensation payments in 2023 to promise that they would not make any claims for health damages. Thus, the final report will hugely play down this factor and might even state as "evidence" that there have been no claims from survivors.
All those working for the Inquiry were independent.
The Inquiry was informed of Sir Ken Knight's many conflicts of interest over the Grenfell fire, not least that he made strenuous efforts to prevent the Furniture Regulations being made safe, and did not declare so to the Inquiry. The Inquiry was also informed that Professor David Purser, appointed to write the report on the toxicity of the fire, had long-standing associations with the flame retardant industry (and flame retardants would have contributed hugely to the fire) but did not see any reason to act. None of which will be mentioned.
Flame retardants will barely be mentioned.
David Purser's report places huge weighting on the toxicity of the fire having stemmed from cladding and windowsills (despite the fact that cladding insulation does not appear to have contained flame retardants and most of its fumes would have remained outside the tower), and only mentions furniture in passing. The report will mirror this, i.e. ensuring it is seen to acknowledge that burning furniture played a part in the toxic fire but not the fact that the contribution of hundreds of sofas and mattresses and cushions, stuffed with toxic flame retardants, would clearly massively outweigh the contribution from cladding and windowsills.
The fact that all home fires are highly toxic and any future tower block fires will be just as deadly as Grenfell will not be mentioned.
UK furniture continues to be highly toxic and flammable, and looks to remain so for many years to come, judging by the current delaying tactics of the OPSS. Hence, future tower block fires will be as toxic as Grenfell and any dwelling fires will remain highly toxic too. The fact that this means every citizen in the country, and firefighters, remain at huge risk of fire poisoning will not be tackled by the report, and no warnings to the public will be given.
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